China has the power to take Taiwan

Taiwan's population of 24 million people is packed into dense urban areas like the capital Taipei, with an average of 9,575 people per square kilometer. Compare that to Mariupol, Ukraine -- devastated in the war with Russia -- and with an average of 2,690 people per square kilometer.

Despite its numerical advantages in sea-, air- and land-based forces in the region, China has Achilles heels in each arena of war that would force Beijing to think long and hard about whether an invasion is worth the overwhelming human cost.

Here are some scenarios of how a Chinese invasion might play out:

The naval war

China has the world's largest navy, with around 360 combat vessels -- bigger than the US' fleet of just under 300 ships.

Beijing also has the world's most-advanced merchant fleet, a large coast guard and, experts say, a maritime militia -- fishing boats unofficially aligned with the military -- giving it access to hundreds of additional vessels that could be used to transport the hundreds of thousands of troops that analysts say China would need for an amphibious invasion.

And those troops would need massive amounts of supplies.

"For Beijing to have reasonable prospects of victory, the PLA (People's Liberation Army) would have to move thousands of tanks, artillery guns, armored personnel vehicles, and rocket launchers across with the troops. Mountains of equipment and lakes of fuel would have to cross with them," Ian Easton, a senior director at the Project 2049 Institute, wrote in The Diplomat last year.

Getting a force of that size across the 110 miles (177 kilometers) of the Taiwan Strait would be a long, dangerous mission during which those vessels carrying the troops and equipment would be sitting ducks.

"The thought about China invading Taiwan, that's a massacre for the Chinese navy," said Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

That's because Taiwan has been stocking up on cheap and effective land-based anti-ship missiles, similar to the Neptunes Ukraine used to sink the Russian cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea in April.

"Taiwan is mass-producing these things. And they're small, it's not like (China) can take them all out," O'Brien said.

"What's cheap is a surface-to-ship missile, what's expensive is a ship."

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